$20 gasoline formula

Here is what we have. Iran, a middle eastern sovereign democratic, (like it or not) nation with mega oil. A president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that has spoken out against Israel (God forbid, the "chosen" people), and testing rockets to defend themselves against all enemies. They have clearly seen what happens to countries (Iraq) in the region that the U.S. has claimed having Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Here is the problem. When Israel has military exercises to show their strength, the world barely notices. However, when any other country (that isn't considered a U.S. ally) in that region of the world especially does the same thing - it is said that they are preparing to attack. I have no problem with Iran having nuclear weapons at all - they should be able to defend themselves against anyone (including the U.S. and Israel). If they want to blow each other off the face of the globe, let them. The U.S. clearly has too few gasoline refineries (no ones fault but our own, we've had a gas crisis before with a 30 year period to to find new sources of energy). To quote my President, "we have an addiction to oil" and higher than ever demand for oil around the world. To complete this perfect financial storm, we also have a rapidly falling dollar, and a floundering U.S. economy (change may not come quickly enough).

The likelihood of Iran attacking anyone is absolutely minuscule at best. They have one export that they rely on and the world relies on. They won't jeopardize their own ability to survive (both literally or financially). If war between a nuclear armed Israel and Iran started, it would surely be mutual destruction for both. So why they may practice these war maneuvers, they both should know that it does not benefit either countries.

Here is what we can't do and here's why. A strategic strike (if you think $5 gasoline in the U.S. is bad, it would quadruple overnight) would not go unanswered. We have too many financial interest in that region of the world and Iran clearly knows this. Sanctions clearly have not worked just as they haven't against Cuba, or practically any other country we imposed them on. A long drawn out preemptive war with Iran while engaged with Iraq and Afghanistan is plain stupid and most likely suicide for an already depleted military force. We won't even have a "coalition of the willing" on our side in that one.

Here is what we should do. We should engage Iran directly through diplomacy instead of the crazy rhetoric we hear everyday from Condi Rice. In fact, I argue that we have an even greater interest in protecting Iran from Israel (last I heard, they didn't produce any barrels of oil per day). That's right, you did read that correctly. Let Iran know that we will defend them against any military attack, including Israel. When we show the Iranian people that we can be fair and trusted and treat them as allies - they will not have a need to build weapons and hurl baseless threats against any nations. We have had enough weapons to destroy the world since 1945 and only one country has ever used them in war. While many other countries have acquired them, we all know that it would be lights out for us all the next time one is used - even George Bush can't be that naive.

Soon, within 50 years, this supply of limited natural resource will run out and what will do then. Perhaps, Agent Smith (Matrix reference), was right - perhaps we are the worlds virus, or our behavior is virus like.